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Commentary

Q3 2025 Fund Commentary

Market Commentary

Global equities gained over the third quarter of 2025 and outperformed global bonds, which posted a small gain (all returns in Canadian-dollar terms on a total return basis). Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) would lower interest rates and ongoing investment and development in artificial intelligence (AI) helped boost stocks over the quarter.

The U.S. equity market advanced, posting a double-digit return. Information technology was the strongest-performing sector. Canadian equities increased and outperformed U.S. equities, getting a strong performance from the materials sector. EAFE equities advanced, underperforming Canadian and U.S. equities.

Equities in Japan and the U.K. contributed to the performance of EAFE equities. Emerging markets equities also advanced and outperformed their developed market peers, with equities in China and Taiwan contributing to performance.

The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index posted a total return of 1.5% over the quarter. As government yields moved lower, government bond prices increased. Government bonds underperformed corporate bonds, which also posted a gain.

Corporate bond prices benefited from narrowing credit spreads (the difference in yield between corporate and government bonds). Real estate bonds posted the largest increase in the corporate sector. High-yield bond prices rose on a total return basis and outperformed investment-grade corporate bonds.

Global bond yields remained largely unchanged over the quarter, and global bond prices posted a small gain. The Bank of Canada, the Fed and the Bank of England lowered their policy interest rates. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan held their policy interest rates steady. The yield on 10-year Government of Canada bonds fell from 3.27% to 3.18%. Government yields in the U.S. also declined. Government bond yields in the U.K., Germany and Japan increased.

Performance

The Pool’s relative exposure to TE Connectivity PLC contributed to performance. TE Connectivity reported higher sales driven by AI connectivity solutions and energy business growth.

Relative exposure to Mattel Inc. and SAP SE detracted from performance. Both companies’ shares fell because of global trade uncertainties, which could impact demand for their products and services.

At a sector level, security selection in industrials and communication services contributed to performance. Stock selection in consumer discretionary detracted from performance, as did underweight exposure to information technology.

Relative exposure to Teranet Holdings LP (3.719%, 2029/02/23) contributed to performance. The bond benefited from supportive technical factors and investor demand for credits with predictable cash flows. Exposure to Government of Canada (3.25%, 2028/09/01) detracted from performance as short-term federal bonds underperformed.

At a sector level, exposure to corporate bonds contributed to performance while federal government bond exposure detracted from performance.

Portfolio Activity

Tourmaline Oil Corp. was increased based on its opportunity for continued growth.

Norfolk Southern Corp. was sold after Union Pacific announced its acquisition of the company. Gentex Corp. was sold in favour of other investment opportunities. SAP and TE Connectivity were reduced amid volatility.

Province of Alberta (2.05%, 2030/06/01) was increased for its valuation relative to other provincial bonds. Alberta continued to demonstrate fiscal discipline, supported by resource-driven revenues and prudent budget management.

Outlook

In the sub-advisor’s view, the third quarter of 2025 highlighted divergence in global growth. The U.S. economy was resilient with gross domestic product growth near 3% annualized and productivity gains driven by AI adoption offsetting softer labour market trends. In contrast, Canada, Europe and the U.K. were weighed down by rising unemployment and trade challenges.

In the sub-advisor’s view, equity markets reflect investor optimism, particularly in the U.S., where AI-driven earnings drove elevated valuations. Market concentration in technology and swings in investor sentiment are causes for caution.

Within fixed income, we view alternatives such as private credit and mortgages as valuable sources of income and duration management, particularly in a higher-for-longer environment. Liquidity and flexibility remain central, allowing portfolios to absorb sudden shocks if risks around AI investment, funding markets, or fiscal policy materialize.

Disclaimer

The commentaries on the company specific information and purchases and sales were provided by the fund manager. Canada Life Investment Management Ltd. will not be liable for any loss, or damages whatsoever, whether directly or indirectly incurred, arising out of the use or misuse of errors or omissions in any information contained in this commentary. The data provided in this commentary is for information purposes only and, except where otherwise indicated, is current as of June 30, 2025.

The views expressed in this commentary are those of fund manager as at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This commentary is presented only as a general source of information and is not intended as a solicitation to buy or sell specific investments, nor is it intended to provide tax or legal advice. Prospective investors should review the offering documents relating to any investment carefully before making an investment decision and should ask their Advisor for advice based on their specific circumstances.

The content of this commentary (including facts, views, opinions, recommendations, descriptions of or references to, products or securities) is not to be used or construed as investment advice, as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any entity or security cited. Although we endeavour to ensure its accuracy and completeness, we assume no responsibility for any reliance upon it.

This document may contain forward-looking information which reflect our or third-party current expectations or forecasts of future events. Forward-looking information is inherently subject to, among other things, risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed herein. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions include, without limitation, general economic, political and market factors, interest and foreign exchange rates, the volatility of equity and capital markets, business competition, technological change, changes in government regulations, changes in tax laws, unexpected judicial or regulatory proceedings and catastrophic events. Please consider these and other factors carefully and not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. The forward-looking information contained herein is current only as of June 30, 2025. There should be no expectation that such information will in all circumstances be updated, supplemented or revised whether as a result of new information, changing circumstances, future events or otherwise.

There can be no assurance that the Fund’s return or volatility targets will be met, or met over any particular time horizon. Targeted returns and volatility should be evaluated over the time period indicated and not over shorter periods. Targeted returns are not actual performance and should not be relied upon as an indication of actual or future performance.

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

Counsel Portfolios are managed by Canada Life Investment Management Ltd. Counsel Portfolios are distributed by Quadrus Investment Services Ltd., IPC Investment Corporation, and IPC Securities Corporation, and may also be available through other authorized dealers in Canada.